Economy· 13 outcomes

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$53.6M tradedCloses Jan 2027 · 1 Jan

This one is all but decided (one side is at 98% or more), so it's waiting for the official result. You can still call a side that isn't too close to settled.

<1%chance for 11 (275 bps)no change today

75%50%25%

<1%−47 this period

48% to <1%

30 SEPTNOW1 JAN

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CHANCE · $10 WINS

0 (0 bps)−1 today96%$10.38 1 (25 bps)2%$571.43 2 (50 bps)<1%$1,818.18 3 (75 bps)<1%–4 (100 bps)<1%–5 (125 bps)<1%–6 (150 bps)<1%–7 (175 bps)<1%–8 (200 bps)<1%–9 (225 bps)<1%–

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10 (250 bps)<1%–11 (275 bps)<1%–12+ (300+ bps)<1%–

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No calls yetMake the first call on this market and it goes on your record at <1%.

How it settles

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut… Read all

s have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Closes 1 JanYour record updates as soon as it settles.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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How it settles

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