$4K in at 93%, now 99%, +5.7%Back No−6797Fade+6797
GeopoliticsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$46.4M tradedCloses in 48d 8h, 1 Jan
This one is all but decided (one side is at 98% or more), so it's waiting for the official result. You can still call a side that isn't too close to settled.
1%chance of Yesno change today
75%50%25%1%0 this period2% to 1%
6 NOVNOW
All calls
$400K in at 96%, now 99%, +3.0%Back No−6797Fade+6797
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
