Geopolitics

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$517K tradedClosing, 20 Oct

This one is all but decided (one side is at 98% or more), so it's waiting for the official result. You can still call a side that isn't too close to settled.

2%chance of Yesno change today

75%50%25%2%0 this period2% to 2%

6 NOVNOW

All calls

1 from Polymarket's top 100 this month, none on Backd yet: be the first.

PacersThreeandahalf21d ago, on Polymarket, #52 this month

$29 in at 98%, now 98%Back No−4900 Fade+4900

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Closes 20 OctYour record updates as soon as it settles.

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